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Our Football-Free-Picks.com free ATS and SU computer based statistical expert predictions have been over 72% accurate over the last six years, with our top free football pick at 69% using our unit confidence system, and has always been in plus units. We have NEVER had a losing NFL or College season! The more confident we are in the football free pick, the more confidence units we assign to our top free NFL or College Against the Spread or Straight Up selection.

NFL Key Numbers

Key numbers are the winning NFL football Game point margins that occur most frequently.

3 is the most frequent occurring NFL football game winning point margin. Field goals are the winning score in many games, either in the final minutes or in overtime. About 15% of all NFL games end with a 3 point margin. 

7 is the next most frequent winning margin with about 7% of all NFL games ending with a 7 point victory. 

6 point margins occur a little more than 6%.

10 and 4 occur a little under 6%.

Oddsmakers use key numbers when they set the spread and when they adjust the spread. By using a half point adjustment ( in football of course it is impossible to score a half point ) they are forcing the action, there cannot be a tie or a push on a bet. But there is also a psychological reason for the half point!

Oddsmakers will Shade the Point Spread Line.

Oddsmakers will move a game off a key number by shading the line by a half point up or down to invite more football betting action. Beware of point spreads with a half point in them that are near key numbers. History tells us NFL football games with these shaded lines often do not cover.

 -2.5, -3.5, -6.5, and -9.5 are all lines that seem to give you the advantage of a key number bet. The oddsmakers have invited you to bet on the favorite to win by a key number. In your head you think Team X giving 6.5? Surely they will win by a touchdown! But usually they do not, and the oddsmakers set this line because they thought the favorite would not win by that touchdown.    

 +3.5, + 4.5, +7.5, and +10.5 work the other way. The oddsmakers now are inviting a bet on the underdog. They want you to think Team Z +7.5, surely it will be closer than that, they cannot lose by more than a touchdown. But again, the oddsmakers set this line because they think the underdog will lose by more than a touchdown.

Remember, most bettors are betting on emotion, not logic. They want to take the home team, or the national favorite, and are subconsciously looking for a way to do so, These shaded key numbers are set up to bring in action and to create a perceived betting value in the minds of the emotional bettors. When you see these spreads on games, take a good close look, there is usually a good reason for them, and it is not because the oddsmakers are being charitable! 

Football-Free-Picks.com has provided our winning football predictions ATS and SU absolutely free to all football fans for over ten years. We have never had a losing season!

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Free NFL ATS and SU Football Picks for all of these AFC Football teams

 Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Oakland Raiders, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Diego Chargers, Tennessee Titans

Free NFL ATS and SU Football Picks for all of these NFC Football teams

 Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, St. Louis Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Redskins.

Free College ATS and SU Football Picks for all of these College Football Teams:

ACC Atlantic: Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, Maryland, North Carolina State, Wake Forest, Coastal, Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami (Fla.), North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Big East: Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, South Florida, Syracuse, West Virginia.

Big Ten: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan State, Michigan, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin,

Big 12: North, Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas State, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, South, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Texas

Conference USA East: UAB, Central Florida, East Carolina, Marshall, Memphis, Southern Mississippi, West: Houston, Rice, Southern Methodist, Texas-El Paso, Tulane, Tulsa,

I-A Independents: Army, Navy, Notre Dame, Temple,

Mid-American: East, Akron, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Kent State, Miami (Ohio), Ohio, West, Ball State, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, Toledo, Western Michigan,

Mountain West: Air Force, Brigham Young, Colorado State, New Mexico, San Diego State, TCU, UNLV, Utah, Wyoming

Pac-10: Arizona State, Arizona, California, Oregon, Oregon State, Southern California, Stanford, UCLA, Washington, Washington State,  

SEC East: Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, West: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi State, Mississippi.

Sun Belt: Arkansas State, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, La.-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, Middle Tennessee, North Texas, Troy,

WAC: Boise State, Fresno State, Hawaii, Idaho, Louisiana Tech, Nevada, New Mexico State, San Jose State, Utah State

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