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Home Field Advantage in the NFL
IHFA, Home Field Advantage, ( the 12th man, as it is sometimes called ) is generally misunderstood by most bettors, and is also most definitely a factor in many NFL football Games.
But how much of a factor? Most football fans think HFA is worth 3 points. A Team favored by 6 at home is thought by most fans to be favored on points by 3, with 3 more points automatically added for the home field advantage. How about the Dolphins coming to Denver in December? Cold weather, possible snow, and a mile high atmosphere is a tough transition for a warm weather team, and certainly worth more than 3 points to the Broncos.
HFA is generally worth less than a field goal early in the NFL football season. The oddsmakers are still evaluating the teams, waiting to see who has improved and who has declined. Setting the line is tough enough, and usually only a point or two is added for Home Field Advantage.
In the middle of the season, HFA is definitely worth 3 points and sometimes more when there are physical, climatic, or geographic advantages to the home team. There may be snow at Lambeau field in October and the Bucaneers still have suntans!
And later in the season, HFA also becomes more valuable later in the season. Travel stress, especially if it happens for two weeks in a row, can wear a team down, and give a rested and unstressed home team a much better advantage, up to 5 or 6 points. Being home two weeks in a row is almost a vacation for a team in the tough final weeks of the NFL football season.
And in late November and early December, an NFL football team playing at home after a bye week is certainly getting more than three points for HFA!